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 Post subject: Re: Is it time to *Gasp* unban the moxen?
AgePosted: 2011-Apr-19 5:44 pm 
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Joined: 2011-Jan-16 5:36 pm
Age: Elder Dragon
Location: Toronto, ON
Mooney wrote:
Nearly all the arguments in favor of the moxen seem to rely on the very small chance that it's in your opening hand or the first couple cards you draw.


No. I mentioned storm counts. Though, since we're on the topic, I suppose we could also talk about Armageddon, Wake of Destruction and Crucible/Mine, and Plow Under, and how Moxes are way better in those situations than lands of any stripe.

Quote:
It's value is very situational, but I do realize that it works better than basic lands in a few situations, like Tezzeret searching for 0. In fact, it seems like blue is the only color that would actually have any reason to run one. Green much prefers lands over artifacts, white has the most nonland boardwipes, red destroys artifacts and lands alike, and black really just needs Urborg, tomb of Yawgmoth and Cabal Coffers.

At this point, I think this whole conversation is completely ridiculous.

1. People play Mana Crypt and Sol Ring (even in green). It is widely (universally?) accepted that these cards are good.
2. Moxes aren't really that much worse than Mana Crypt and Sol Ring.*
3. People will play Moxes.


*This is where I'm getting the disagreement; people are telling me, with vigour, that moxes are somehow less worth running than basic lands, citing the risk of destruction from Aura Shards, Shattering pulse, Akroma's Vengeance, and other credible artifact destruction cards which that have not, with any regularity managed to destroy my Ring/Crypt/Vault.

I respect tide spout eliot's opinion about this, because it's well articulated, and mostly respectful, and the difference in opinion could possibly be chalked up to local environment. Maybe in his environment, wood elves is a better play than Sol Ring. Maybe the threat against artifact mana is that great. It is certainly not the case in my experience, but as the saying goes, your mileage may vary.

Further, Black does not *need* Cabal Coffers and Urborg, ToY. It's really nice. It's currently one of the best, if not the best, plays available to that colour. But that does not impinge on running one friggin' mox ahead of one single swamp. If that's a consideration, I think perspective has been lost somewhere.

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 Post subject: Re: Is it time to *Gasp* unban the moxen?
AgePosted: 2011-Apr-19 10:19 pm 
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Joined: 2011-Apr-13 2:53 am
Age: Dragon
Location: Milwaukee, WI
tremor wrote:
If you play a 3-color deck, your chance of having a turn 1 mox is 23%. That's not insignificant.

I'd really like to see your math on this, but that's for a different thread entirely.

Eh. I'm done. Everything boils down to the people you play with, so no one can make any arguments that are universally true. It's clear that no one is going to have to make the decision anyway.

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 Post subject: Re: Is it time to *Gasp* unban the moxen?
AgePosted: 2011-Apr-20 1:31 am 

Joined: 2009-Nov-28 7:07 am
Age: Elder Dragon
In a three colour EDH deck containing 3 moxen, the chances of the very first card drawn being one of those three moxen is 3 in 99, no?

Now let us suppose it wasn't one of the moxen. The chances that the next card is a mox is now 3 in 98. And the third card, 3 in 97... and so on.

Add up those chances for the first 8 cards (seven cards, plus your first draw), and you have 25,1% chance of one of those 8 cards being a mox.

Now let us add in Mana Crypt, Mana Vault, and Sol Ring...

6 in 99, 6 in 98, 6 in 97 ... and you have a 50,2% chance of getting a significant mana rock on the first turn.

And that is without adding in muligan rules.


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 Post subject: Re: Is it time to *Gasp* unban the moxen?
AgePosted: 2011-Apr-20 5:51 am 

Joined: 2010-Sep-11 12:19 pm
Age: Elder Dragon
green slime wrote:
In a three colour EDH deck containing 3 moxen, the chances of the very first card drawn being one of those three moxen is 3 in 99, no?

Now let us suppose it wasn't one of the moxen. The chances that the next card is a mox is now 3 in 98. And the third card, 3 in 97... and so on.

Add up those chances for the first 8 cards (seven cards, plus your first draw), and you have 25,1% chance of one of those 8 cards being a mox.

Now let us add in Mana Crypt, Mana Vault, and Sol Ring...

6 in 99, 6 in 98, 6 in 97 ... and you have a 50,2% chance of getting a significant mana rock on the first turn.

And that is without adding in muligan rules.


Its worse if you get two.

/sarcasm.


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 Post subject: Re: Is it time to *Gasp* unban the moxen?
AgePosted: 2011-Apr-20 10:39 am 

Joined: 2008-Aug-01 3:26 pm
Age: Drake
Mooney wrote:
Add up those chances for the first 8 cards (seven cards, plus your first draw), and you have 25,1% chance of one of those 8 cards being a mox.
Flawed math. You don't just add up the percentages (otherwise 2 coin flips = 100% chance of getting a heads).

I won't bore you with a math lesson (unless you ask). Trust me, my first post of 23% (actually it's 22.5xxx rounded up) is correct.

Chance of getting one of 5 mana rocks in your opener (+1) is 35% (34.98 rounded up)


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 Post subject: Re: Is it time to *Gasp* unban the moxen?
AgePosted: 2011-Apr-20 10:45 am 
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Joined: 2011-Apr-13 2:53 am
Age: Dragon
Location: Milwaukee, WI
green slime wrote:
In a three colour EDH deck containing 3 moxen, the chances of the very first card drawn being one of those three moxen is 3 in 99, no?

Now let us suppose it wasn't one of the moxen. The chances that the next card is a mox is now 3 in 98. And the third card, 3 in 97... and so on.

Add up those chances for the first 8 cards (seven cards, plus your first draw), and you have 25,1% chance of one of those 8 cards being a mox.

Now let us add in Mana Crypt, Mana Vault, and Sol Ring...

6 in 99, 6 in 98, 6 in 97 ... and you have a 50,2% chance of getting a significant mana rock on the first turn.

And that is without adding in muligan rules.

This math is incredibly faulty. Going by this, you have over a 100% chance of drawing 1 of 3 moxen (or any given card, for that matter) after drawing 30 cards. This means that you should have drawn every card in your deck after drawing 30 cards. What happened to the other 69?

You don't add up the percentages, you just calculate the new percentage after drawing each card. There's a 3% chance (3/99, 1% per moxen) of getting one in your opening hand, just like there's a 1% chance of drawing any given card in your deck. There's still a 3% chance you'll draw one on your first turn (3/92).

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Please disregard the above post. I am probably tired/sick/brain damaged from inhaling metal fumes and dust at work.

Current Decks
Rith, the Awakener (Formerly Asmira, Holy Avenger and Tolsimir Wolfblood)
Sharuum the Hegemon (WIP) (Formerly Teysa, Orzhov Scion)
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 Post subject: Re: Is it time to *Gasp* unban the moxen?
AgePosted: 2011-Apr-20 11:32 am 

Joined: 2009-Apr-21 3:38 pm
Age: Elder Dragon
Location: Palm Springs Area, CA
Mooney wrote:
green slime wrote:
In a three colour EDH deck containing 3 moxen, the chances of the very first card drawn being one of those three moxen is 3 in 99, no?

Now let us suppose it wasn't one of the moxen. The chances that the next card is a mox is now 3 in 98. And the third card, 3 in 97... and so on.

Add up those chances for the first 8 cards (seven cards, plus your first draw), and you have 25,1% chance of one of those 8 cards being a mox.

Now let us add in Mana Crypt, Mana Vault, and Sol Ring...

6 in 99, 6 in 98, 6 in 97 ... and you have a 50,2% chance of getting a significant mana rock on the first turn.

And that is without adding in muligan rules.

This math is incredibly faulty. Going by this, you have over a 100% chance of drawing 1 of 3 moxen (or any given card, for that matter) after drawing 30 cards. This means that you should have drawn every card in your deck after drawing 30 cards. What happened to the other 69?

You don't add up the percentages, you just calculate the new percentage after drawing each card. There's a 3% chance (3/99, 1% per moxen) of getting one in your opening hand, just like there's a 1% chance of drawing any given card in your deck. There's still a 3% chance you'll draw one on your first turn (3/92).

No one gets this right by the way.

http://www.kibble.net/magic/magic10.php

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 Post subject: Re: Is it time to *Gasp* unban the moxen?
AgePosted: 2011-Apr-20 12:23 pm 

Joined: 2010-Sep-11 6:59 pm
Age: Hatchling
Yes. The moxen are worse in almost every way when compared to sol ring and mana crypt and both of those are legal. Really, the only problem with moxen is how expensive they would be if they got unbanned. That's the only reason. I would much prefer to go land sol ring on the first turn of a game when compared to land mox go. Why? You have access to 4 mana on turn 2 then. Anyone who thinks 4 mana on turn 2 isn't good in MtG is on crack pretty much because you can do a lot more with 4 mana versus 3 mana.


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 Post subject: Re: Is it time to *Gasp* unban the moxen?
AgePosted: 2011-Apr-20 1:18 pm 

Joined: 2010-Sep-28 8:44 am
Age: Elder Dragon
Location: Hamilton, ON
Barl Artificer wrote:
Yes. The moxen are worse in almost every way when compared to sol ring and mana crypt and both of those are legal. Really, the only problem with moxen is how expensive they would be if they got unbanned. That's the only reason. I would much prefer to go land sol ring on the first turn of a game when compared to land mox go. Why? You have access to 4 mana on turn 2 then. Anyone who thinks 4 mana on turn 2 isn't good in MtG is on crack pretty much because you can do a lot more with 4 mana versus 3 mana.


If I'm holding a counterspell I'd much rather go Island, Mox Sapphire, go. Then your opponent has to play aroudn you representing counterspell for the entire game.

This is all contextual anyways. Sol Ring will Generate more mana over the course of the game, as will Crypt, but they don't help decks with mostly colored mana costs that much, and Mana Crypt can kill you (it's killed me a non-trivial number of times). Moxen are better at accelerating heavy color requirements (such as many generals). Over the course of a long game, yes Sol Ring is likely the better card. It's certainly the first card you pick P1P1 in Vintage Rotisserie Draft. But Sol Ring costs $19.99 Moc Pearl Costs $400. As you can see by my decklist in my sig I'm not much of a budget concious player (10 set of duals, lots of japanese foils, Mana Drain, Timetwister, Jace, etc... all in just one deck), but even I'd be turned off by the Moxen being present in the format. Leave that stuff for Vintage folks. There is no realistic arguement that most EDH decks (apart from Null Rod focused decks and Karn/Eldrazi generals) would not want Moxen. They're not Mishra's Workshops or Tabernacle at Pendrell Vales that only certain generals want. EDH would be like Vintage- either you have the moxen, and you run them, or you don;t, so you don;t and your deck suffers for it.

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 Post subject: Re: Is it time to *Gasp* unban the moxen?
AgePosted: 2011-Apr-20 1:26 pm 

Joined: 2008-Aug-01 3:26 pm
Age: Drake
niheloim wrote:
No one gets this right by the way.

*ahem*? (you forgot to add "except tremor")


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 Post subject: Re: Is it time to *Gasp* unban the moxen?
AgePosted: 2011-Apr-20 1:50 pm 

Joined: 2009-Apr-21 3:38 pm
Age: Elder Dragon
Location: Palm Springs Area, CA
Tremor wrote:
niheloim wrote:
No one gets this right by the way.

*ahem*? (you forgot to add "except tremor")

Yes I did. Sorry. :)

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 Post subject: Re: Is it time to *Gasp* unban the moxen?
AgePosted: 2011-Apr-20 8:19 pm 

Joined: 2009-Jan-23 11:34 am
Age: Elder Dragon
Moxen are acceleration. You put them into your deck for the same reason you put Sol Ring and Mana Crypt in; which is not to replace a land draw but to accelerate into your threats Combo.
Moxen are exponentially more powerful then Ring/Crypt because unlike Ring they don't cost anything, and unlike both Ring and Crypt they provide colored mana.

People who argue they are weaker then lands due to board sweepers are missing the point; by the time someone can play a sweeper a player using Moxen should have already won.

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Spekter wrote:
niheloim wrote:
Aggravated Assault + Bear Umbra = My attempt to make my group move to ban Uril.
That's not ban-worthy, that's the spirit of EDH. Three-card combo involving the combat phase? Awesome.


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 Post subject: Re: Is it time to *Gasp* unban the moxen?
AgePosted: 2011-Apr-20 9:27 pm 

Joined: 2010-Dec-04 2:03 pm
Age: Drake
Killane wrote:
There is no realistic arguement that most EDH decks (apart from Null Rod focused decks and Karn/Eldrazi generals) would not want Moxen. They're not Mishra's Workshops or Tabernacle at Pendrell Vales that only certain generals want. EDH would be like Vintage- either you have the moxen, and you run them, or you don;t, so you don;t and your deck suffers for it.


I fully and whole heartedly agree with this assessment of these cards. Saying that a deck would not play every mox it has access to is completely insane. Unless your deck is tuned to fight artifacts specifically, how is a free to cast colored source not bonkers? Add in the fact that to create a demand in EDH for them would cause them to be almost unobtainable save for the wealthiest players, and it seems ridiculous to turn EDH into 100 card vintage singleton. It's adverse to the casual nature of the format, and would enable combo decks to go even faster. I think that practically speaking, degenerate, stupid combo benefits from them far more than any other deck type. And we should not be encouraging people to play masturbatory combo decks...


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 Post subject: Re: Is it time to *Gasp* unban the moxen?
AgePosted: 2011-Apr-21 1:08 am 

Joined: 2009-Oct-28 10:55 pm
Age: Elder Dragon
I'll reply to the original post, which asked what it would take to get the moxen unbanned.

Inflated reprinting is the only thing that could do it, and that's so unlikely as to be bordering on impossible in the foreseeable future (reserved list etc.). We're talking massive reprints here, not a trickle of mint "treasures". If, after legalization and the full traffic of the format has had its way with the supply/demand curve, the moxen cost more than ~$30-50 each, then too few copies would have been reprinted.

I honestly think that there are already some staples of the format that deserve banning on the price/ubiquity/universal function axis but the RC has failed to act on them. Mana Crypt and Wasteland are prime examples, and I refuse to play them in my decks. It's simply antisocial to play prohibitively expensive cards against one's opponents. There has to be a ceiling if you want it to be a casual format.


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 Post subject: Re: Is it time to *Gasp* unban the moxen?
AgePosted: 2011-Apr-21 3:40 am 

Joined: 2010-Dec-02 10:28 am
Age: Drake
Location: Halifax, NS
Your definition of "prohibitively expensive" may differ from say, a Donald Trump-type player.

40$ for a one-off, useful in any deck card like Wasteland and Mana Crypt I think is perfectly reasonable, as opposed to 200$+ for a card like a Moxen that would only be useful in a deck of the matching color.

Now I have to go back on that statement since looking online, Wasteland is above 60$ and Mana Crypt is above 70$. Thank God I have a couple Wastelands, no way I'd pay that much for them.

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