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 Post subject: Whims of Fate - Call to Discuss
AgePosted: 2014-Jan-22 3:54 pm 

Joined: 2010-Sep-11 12:19 pm
Age: Elder Dragon
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I already foresee awfulness with this card.


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 Post subject: Re: Whims of Fate - Call to Discuss
AgePosted: 2014-Jan-22 4:11 pm 
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Joined: 2009-Aug-20 7:49 pm
Age: Elder Dragon
Location: New Hampshire
I don't expect to see it much. It's symmetrical and random, so it basically reads "each player sacrifices 1/3 of their board at random". It's sacrifice so you can't pull any BS with Avacyn or anything either (although you don't want to cast this against someone with Sigarda).

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 Post subject: Re: Whims of Fate - Call to Discuss
AgePosted: 2014-Jan-22 4:17 pm 

Joined: 2010-Sep-11 12:19 pm
Age: Elder Dragon
Sid the Chicken wrote:
I don't expect to see it much. It's symmetrical and random, so it basically reads "each player sacrifices 1/3 of their board at random". It's sacrifice so you can't pull any BS with Avacyn or anything either (although you don't want to cast this against someone with Sigarda).

I agree with this; though trolls being trolls - I foresee this being copied as many times as possible to make games miserable. Is that enough to warrant banning? No. It is not a Worldfire; or Apocalypse. But I feel like (and always will) that this sort of effect is detrimental to attracting new players; keeping existing ones and having fun games.


But I've been wrong before - I just hope I never encounter this card - and I'm sure I will.


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 Post subject: Re: Whims of Fate - Call to Discuss
AgePosted: 2014-Jan-22 4:37 pm 

Joined: 2008-Jan-25 8:26 am
Age: Elder Dragon
Location: Calgary
when isn't it the right play to pick piles of 0, 0, n?

given you won't be doing this over a large sample size is it smarter to take advantage of the variance (i.e. pick 0,0,n) or hide from it?

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 Post subject: Re: Whims of Fate - Call to Discuss
AgePosted: 2014-Jan-22 4:41 pm 
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Joined: 2011-Feb-07 3:37 pm
Age: Elder Dragon
Location: Danbury, CT
tarnar wrote:
when isn't it the right play to pick piles of 0, 0, n?

given you won't be doing this over a large sample size is it smarter to take advantage of the variance (i.e. pick 0,0,n) or hide from it?


Real men put all their permanents in one pile.

...

(there's no way to cheat the EV on the card... no matter how you slice it, on average you're losing 1/3 of your permanents.)

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 Post subject: Re: Whims of Fate - Call to Discuss
AgePosted: 2014-Jan-22 4:53 pm 
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Joined: 2010-Jul-18 9:59 pm
Age: Elder Dragon
Because if you get unlucky you nuke your entire board

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 Post subject: Re: Whims of Fate - Call to Discuss
AgePosted: 2014-Jan-22 4:54 pm 

Joined: 2013-Oct-09 7:02 am
Age: Elder Dragon
I don't think it is more trolly as cards that already exist, such as Scrambleverse or Confusion in the Ranks. It would definitely go in my troll deck though.


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 Post subject: Re: Whims of Fate - Call to Discuss
AgePosted: 2014-Jan-22 5:06 pm 

Joined: 2008-Jan-25 8:26 am
Age: Elder Dragon
Location: Calgary
Kemev wrote:
(there's no way to cheat the EV on the card... no matter how you slice it, on average you're losing 1/3 of your permanents.)

Of course and I wouldn't suggest otherwise.

If you pick n/3, n/3, n/3 then you lose 1/3rd every time
If you pick 0, 0, n then you lose everything 1/3rd of the time

The EV is the same and you are right that you can't cheat the EV over time.

But you won't be rolling that d6 a thousand times, or a hundred times, or even ten times in a game*. You'll roll the 5 or 6 about one third of the time over all rolls but that won't be in the same game.

So I think the question stands, although I don't know if there is actually a game theory / EV answer to it or if it's a preference / attitude thing.

* - if this spell is played ten times in a given game then I suggest you warm up the tar and pluck some chickens

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 Post subject: Re: Whims of Fate - Call to Discuss
AgePosted: 2014-Jan-22 6:12 pm 
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Joined: 2010-Jul-18 9:59 pm
Age: Elder Dragon
tarnar wrote:
* - if this spell is played ten times in a given game then I suggest you warm up the tar and pluck some chickens

You sir, owe me a new keyboard, this one appears to have orange juice all over it :P

.sigged!

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"- if this spell is played ten times in a given game then I suggest you warm up the tar and pluck some chickens" - tarnar

The internet's great at making noise, and poor at operating pants. There's gonna be half-dressed mobs screeching half-assed arguments for the rest of the 21st century - Kemev


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 Post subject: Re: Whims of Fate - Call to Discuss
AgePosted: 2014-Jan-22 6:17 pm 
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Joined: 2009-Aug-20 7:49 pm
Age: Elder Dragon
Location: New Hampshire
tarnar wrote:
* - if this spell is played ten times in a given game then I suggest you warm up the tar and pluck some chickens

HEY! You leave me out of this! :evil:

On a more serious note, I'd rather lose a random third of my board than have a 1/3 chance of total suckitude.

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 Post subject: Re: Whims of Fate - Call to Discuss
AgePosted: 2014-Jan-22 8:48 pm 
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Joined: 2011-Jan-16 5:36 pm
Age: Elder Dragon
Location: Toronto, ON
Seems okay with Faith's Reward. Unplayable if there's a Sigarda, Host of Herons player at the table.

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 Post subject: Re: Whims of Fate - Call to Discuss
AgePosted: 2014-Jan-22 9:31 pm 
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Joined: 2013-May-29 9:57 am
Age: Elder Dragon
Location: Atlanta, GA
I would like to say no one in their right mind is going to play this, but there's always that one guy with the goddamn Grip of Chaos deck...

Granted the two cards have no synergy together, but still. Red Chaos seems like such a fun deck to play until you actually play it.

On the flipside, it's one of the few ways (albeit janky in the extreme) that mono-red can deal with stuff like enchantments without resorting to colorless.

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 Post subject: Re: Whims of Fate - Call to Discuss
AgePosted: 2014-Jan-23 12:13 am 

Joined: 2010-Dec-03 3:54 pm
Age: Drake
Zirilan of the Claw wrote:
I would like to say no one in their right mind is going to play this, but there's always that one guy with the goddamn Grip of Chaos deck...

I have made (& will remake a OmniShow version for high-profile tournament use at some point) a Grip of Chaos deck. I combine it with Hive Mind. And Eye of the Storm. And Wild Ricochet...

It's purpose is to get that card banned, and hopefully curtail future development of random mechanics.

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 Post subject: Re: Whims of Fate - Call to Discuss
AgePosted: 2014-Jan-23 2:40 am 
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Joined: 2007-Jan-05 12:58 am
Age: Elder Dragon
tarnar wrote:
Kemev wrote:
(there's no way to cheat the EV on the card... no matter how you slice it, on average you're losing 1/3 of your permanents.)

Of course and I wouldn't suggest otherwise.

If you pick n/3, n/3, n/3 then you lose 1/3rd every time
If you pick 0, 0, n then you lose everything 1/3rd of the time

The EV is the same and you are right that you can't cheat the EV over time.

But you won't be rolling that d6 a thousand times, or a hundred times, or even ten times in a game*. You'll roll the 5 or 6 about one third of the time over all rolls but that won't be in the same game.

So I think the question stands, although I don't know if there is actually a game theory / EV answer to it or if it's a preference / attitude thing.

* - if this spell is played ten times in a given game then I suggest you warm up the tar and pluck some chickens

It's a game-state based choice, I think. If you're behind, you probably want to be riskier to catch up. If you have the lead, play it safe most times.

Alternately (depending on game state, again), another option is to put all your threats in one pile, all your land in another, and leave the third empty. Try to close the game with superior tempo over the timid 1/3-players, crush the long game with superior mana and card advantage, or Big Winner.

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 Post subject: Re: Whims of Fate - Call to Discuss
AgePosted: 2014-Jan-23 2:42 am 

Joined: 2010-Sep-11 12:19 pm
Age: Elder Dragon
Ban Ki-moon wrote:
tarnar wrote:
Kemev wrote:
(there's no way to cheat the EV on the card... no matter how you slice it, on average you're losing 1/3 of your permanents.)

Of course and I wouldn't suggest otherwise.

If you pick n/3, n/3, n/3 then you lose 1/3rd every time
If you pick 0, 0, n then you lose everything 1/3rd of the time

The EV is the same and you are right that you can't cheat the EV over time.

But you won't be rolling that d6 a thousand times, or a hundred times, or even ten times in a game*. You'll roll the 5 or 6 about one third of the time over all rolls but that won't be in the same game.

So I think the question stands, although I don't know if there is actually a game theory / EV answer to it or if it's a preference / attitude thing.

* - if this spell is played ten times in a given game then I suggest you warm up the tar and pluck some chickens

It's a game-state based choice, I think. If you're behind, you probably want to be riskier to catch up. If you have the lead, play it safe most times.

Alternately (depending on game state, again), another option is to put all your threats in one pile, all your land in another, and leave the third empty. Try to close the game with superior tempo over the timid 1/3-players, crush the long game with superior mana and card advantage, or Big Winner.


I was pretty much thinking along those same lines BKM. But 1/3 piles I think are better, since you get the best of both worlds depending on how you split it.


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