tarnar wrote:
Kemev wrote:
(there's no way to cheat the EV on the card... no matter how you slice it, on average you're losing 1/3 of your permanents.)
Of course and I wouldn't suggest otherwise.
If you pick n/3, n/3, n/3 then you lose 1/3rd every time
If you pick 0, 0, n then you lose everything 1/3rd of the time
The EV is the same and you are right that you can't cheat the EV
over time.
But you won't be rolling that d6 a thousand times, or a hundred times, or even ten times in a game*. You'll roll the 5 or 6 about one third of the time over all rolls but that won't be in the same game.
So I think the question stands, although I don't know if there is actually a game theory / EV answer to it or if it's a preference / attitude thing.
* - if this spell is played ten times in a given game then I suggest you warm up the tar and pluck some chickens
It's a game-state based choice, I think. If you're behind, you probably want to be riskier to catch up. If you have the lead, play it safe most times.
Alternately (depending on game state, again), another option is to put all your threats in one pile, all your land in another, and leave the third empty. Try to close the game with superior tempo over the timid 1/3-players, crush the long game with superior mana and card advantage, or Big Winner.